Faster: Demystifying the Science of Triathlon Speed
Interested in knowing your predicted Ironman finishing time? There is a mathematical formula that has been tested and shown to be reasonably accurate.
152.1 +[1.332 x recent marathon time] + [1.964 x Olympic Tri time] = IM time.
Example: Jan’s predicted finish152.1 +[1.332 x 270] + [1.964 x 191] = 14 hours and 48 minutes. Jan finished IM 2009 Lake Placid in 15:54, with a final marathon @ 6:12 compared with her Marine Corps Marathon time of 4:30.
Almost without fail the average age group athlete swims and bikes the IM legs faster than what they trained at and then slows precipitously in the marathon, running much slower than training pace.
Of course variables such as weather, health, training load and race course design (hilly, water conditions, wet suit or not) play a significant role. Jan's example above used the FingerLakes Triathlon time which was a year after LP. It would be better to have a marathon and Olympic distance tri completed a few months before your IM effort for the formula to be more accurate.
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