Race Predictions
Is it too early yet to make guesses on how long it will take Jan to finish? Nah. Let's see, a half-ironman completed in June at Tupper Lake in the Adirondacks in 6:50. The experts would say double the time and add an hour or so. Seems plausible.
However, Jan wasn't feeling well for about a week before that race and finished about 30 minutes or so slower than we felt she was capable of. Also, she has about 9 more weeks of training, including a couple of century bike rides, and others in the 60-80 mile range. She has now completed three runs of three hours or more. Her 5k times have dropped at each race, even if she bikes to the race and swims the night before.
Jan's swimming technique has improved tremendously in the past few months. She is steady, rythmic and growing more confident in the water. She has several open water swims in at Kershaw park at Canandaigua Lake, including up to 3 miles. The Ohio river should have a slight current helping to push her back the last half.
The bike at Louisville is rolling hills for about 70 miles. This could be tough, though Jan did average 15-16mph at Tupper, also a rolling course.
The run at Louisville is flat. The run at Tupper was rolling. Jan is a great, tough, stubborn runner. Evidence for that would be last year in September when she had arthroscopic knee surgery, couldn't run for three weeks, then three weeks later completed the Marine Corp Marathon.
So, I predict a 13:56, which is probably somewhere in the middle of the pack and a very respectable finish. Just finishing will be, and always is for this type of race, a grand achievement!
However, Jan wasn't feeling well for about a week before that race and finished about 30 minutes or so slower than we felt she was capable of. Also, she has about 9 more weeks of training, including a couple of century bike rides, and others in the 60-80 mile range. She has now completed three runs of three hours or more. Her 5k times have dropped at each race, even if she bikes to the race and swims the night before.
Jan's swimming technique has improved tremendously in the past few months. She is steady, rythmic and growing more confident in the water. She has several open water swims in at Kershaw park at Canandaigua Lake, including up to 3 miles. The Ohio river should have a slight current helping to push her back the last half.
The bike at Louisville is rolling hills for about 70 miles. This could be tough, though Jan did average 15-16mph at Tupper, also a rolling course.
The run at Louisville is flat. The run at Tupper was rolling. Jan is a great, tough, stubborn runner. Evidence for that would be last year in September when she had arthroscopic knee surgery, couldn't run for three weeks, then three weeks later completed the Marine Corp Marathon.
So, I predict a 13:56, which is probably somewhere in the middle of the pack and a very respectable finish. Just finishing will be, and always is for this type of race, a grand achievement!
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